Can a Plucky U.S. Economy Surmount $80 Oil? - New York Times
Boy, isn't this one of the biggest questions we face today? With peak oil coming sooner rather than later, the degree to which our economy can handle a spike in oil prices - starting with the much feared $100/barrel mark - without triggering a significant recession or worse remains a great unknown. This article does a great job of exploring this question, though it doesn't even mention peak oil - a frustrating blind spot the media continues to have.
The problem is that we live in a global economy the likes of which we have never seen before and it is constantly changing. The U.S. may still be the world's largest consumer of oil - leading some economists to argue that a recession would in turn trigger lower oil prices - but at some point in the not too distant future China will overtake us in oil consumption. And before we even reach that mark, China and India and other countries will consume enough (and maybe do already) to prop up oil prices even if US consumptions declines in a recession.
Given the uncertainty, however, shouldn't we plan prudently and ratchet up our efforts to develop alternate energy sources, rather than using the uncertainty to ationalize a "do nothing" approach?
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