Missing the mark on Afghanistan and Iran?

It seems like the policy debates in Washington on two of the most "urgent" challenges facing President Obama right now may be missing the mark.

Afghanistan would not appear to be the biggest threat to America and the world right now.  Al Qaeda has found a new refuge nearby in Pakistan.  The Taliban may be resurgent in Afghanistan, but while seeing the Taliban back in power in Kabul would be a humiliation for the US and a tragedy for many of Afghanistan's citizens - especially its women - it would not present a clear and present danger to the US or even that region.  The increasing strength and audacity of the Taliban in Pakistan, however, is frightening.  The Taliban in Pakistan seems to have a larger agenda than the Taliban in Afghanistan did while in power. It's almost like a mixture of the old Taliban with Al Qaeda - religious extremists with an axe to grind against the US and our allies.  There are several nightmare scenarios for a destabilized or failed Pakistan, and they all involve one or more of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling under the control of the Taliban, Al Qaeda, or less-than-responsible elements of the Pakistani Army or intelligence services.  Yet our focus seems to be on Afghanistan, which cannot be solved without first solving the trouble in Pakistan.  And we seem to have no fresh ideas on how to solve Pakistan's woes.

With respect to Iran, the focus of the US and other concerned countries is on preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.  Despite recent diplomatic progress on that front, there are few, if any, real options for denying Iran nuclear weapons if it truly wants them - and why wouldn't it?  Sanctions rarely work at forcing a change in a determined government's policies.  The Pentagon determined some time ago that there was no good military option for denying nukes to Iran.  So it may be that, as John McCain recently acknowledged, we may have to accept the reality of a nuclear Iran at some point in the not-too-distant future.  Now what do we do then?  How should we prepare for that eventuality?  Isn't that the real question policy makers need to be wrestling with in the coming weeks and months?  We need to continue our best efforts to deter Tehran from seeking the bomb while preparing for the day when it gets one.