My tipping point on Afghanistan

I guess the thing that finally led me to essentially give up on Afghanistan was the Wikileaks publication of US military documents on the war in July.  Based on what I have read about them so far, the documents don't offer much we didn't already know or suspect.  But, for me, the war in Afghanistan has really been about Pakistan for years.  Once the Taliban was routed and bin Laden escaped, I believed we needed to stabilize Afghanistan in order to help stabilize Pakistan.  I feared that if we abandoned Afghanistan - or looked like we were going to - the Pakistani government would hedge its bets by increasing its support for the Taliban.

The Wikileaks dump of Pentagon documents was a wake up call for me - the Pakistani government has continued to support the Taliban in Afghanistan and will continue to do so.  they believe we won't stay in Afghanistan forever.  In addition, they see the Taliban as a counterweight to increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan.  Obama's deadline of next summer for beginning a US withdrawal just reenforced Pakistan's conclusion that we will inevitably pack up our troops and leave.

In terms of stabilizing Pakistan, it seems that what we do now in Afghanistan will make little or no difference.  Indeed, one could make the argument that, if anything, our involvement in Afghanistan increases anti-American sentiment in Pakistan.

In the end, if what we really care about is the stability of Pakistan - and its nuclear weapons - and trying to go after Al Qaeda and extremists who seek to destabilize Pakistan's government, then we should focus on what we can reasonably do inside Pakistan and reducing tensions between Pakistan and India.