Sunday, January 30, 2011

Some Thoughts on Egypt

As I sit here watching coverage of the protests in Egypt, I am struck by a couple of things:

  • If we had rid ourselves of our addiction to foreign oil, this crisis would seem a lot simpler to us.  While Egypt itself does not export much oil to the US, approximately 3.8 billion barrels of oil per day pass through Egypt, either through the Suez Canal or pipelines.  In addition, if this pro-democracy movement spreads further in the Middle East, it could eventually affect major oil producers, too.  It is easy to imagine oil traders/speculators driving the price of oil up in the coming days and weeks, with gasoline prices in the US reaching $4 or even approaching $5 per gallon this year.
  • Egypt's greatest importance for the US in recent years has been as a key partner in protecting Israel's security.  Egypt has been a key mediator between Israel and the Palestinians.  It has tried to constrain Hamas.  While some have argued that Egypt has not been as effective as a mediator because it benefits from an endlessly drawn-out process, it is unclear how the US could replace Egypt.  Moreover, the instability in Egypt has raised concerned that Mubarak could be replaced by a regime more hostile to US and Israeli interests, possibly even a regime that would nullify the historic peace treaty with Israel.
  • For Israel, things look worse than they did a month ago. Hezbollah is gaining more control over Lebanon to the north.  Now, it's most reliable and long-term partner in the Arab world, Egypt, is in the midst of a political crisis that could lead to a new regime less friendly to Israel.  Other countries in the region, in order to appease their own populations, may take on a more anti-Israeli - and anti-American - stance in the coming weeks.
  • Does the instability in Egypt cause Israel's government to become more open to a peace deal with the Palestinians, or to hunker down and take an even more defensive stance, putting the peace process in a deep freeze for the foreseeable future?  While, logically, Israel should seek to stabilize its relations with the Palestinians as it faces more uncertainties and threats from its neighbors and potentially loses Egypt's contraints on Hamas, the current government in Israel will probably do the opposite.  

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