In spite of the Olympic embarrassment and his premature Nobel Peace Prize, I think that, overall, President Obama has done a pretty good job in his first 8 1/2 months in office. Remember - he inherited the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression! We were on the precipice of a real disaster in January. I remember telling friends back then that Obama would largely be judged by how well he dealt with that crisis. If we entered a depression, he would be a one-term failure, today's version of Herbert Hoover. If we rebounded, he would be a hero. While it remains to be seen whether we will see a smooth, albeit slow, recovery or a double-dip recession and prolonged double-digit unemployment, based on the data we have to date Obama deserves praise. He passed a massive stimulus bill that probably helped stem the bleeding. He managed what appears to be a sensible, successful (at least in the short-term) rescue of GM and Chrysler. The banking system did not collapse, though there are lots of problems in that sector that could still send it over the deep end. But things are better now than they were in January. So Obama, rightly or wrongly, gets some of the credit.
But I was wrong about Obama being judged just based on the financial/economic crisis. Certainly in his first term, he also has staked his legacy and reelection chances on health care reform. Foreign policy challenges - from Iran and its nuclear program to Iraq and, increasingly, Afghanistan - also will greatly define his administration.
There is a sense that Obama has too much on his plate, that he is trying to do too much at once. That is a valid concern. Many past administrations have struggled because they took on too many things at once or were faced with too many challenges. In Obama's case, however, I am not sure he can avoid or delay many of these challenges. Health care is a problem that must be tackled in order to boost American competitiveness economically and avoid a looming financial crisis for Medicare. Afghanistan is getting worse, as is the situation in Pakistan, and we need to decide if we need a new strategy or just more troops to make the old "new" strategy work. The problem is that the rising instability and growth of the Taliban in nuclear-armed Pakistan is more of a long-term threat to the U.S. and the world than Afghanistan at this point. Iran's nuclear program demands some kind of international response, and the US is the only country that can possibly herd the major players toward some kind of consensus. And let's not forget climate change. It may be as pressing an issue as any of the others.
So if Obama must deal with all these enormous challenges, why do so many of his supporters think he is overreaching? I think it is because he is failing at the "vision thing." President George H.W. Bush dismissed complaints that he had a vision deficit - no clear, overarching goals for his policies - but his lack of a clear vision for America's future is part of what made his Administration look out of touch and adrift during the 1992 election year, in which he lost to Bill Clinton.
In the health care debate, he did not, early on, lay out in a fireside chat-like address to the American people why we need to reform health care and how. As a result, his opponents set the tone and agenda for the debate. Americans heard more about "death panels" than they did about how we spend twice as much per person as other developed countries but rank just above Cuba in quality of care. They heard more about the "public option" in recent weeks than why we need to have something like the public option to reduce health care costs.
Obama also has failed to make clear his vision for America moving forward. There's no long-term vision for what he is trying to do. One gets the feeling that he is trying to put out fires and avoid losing short-term battles. Avoid failure in health care and get some kind of bill passed. Avoid failure in Afghanistan by either sending more troops or redefining what success and failure mean. Avoid looking feeble on Iran and avoid an Israeli strike against Iran that would create a new crisis to grapple with.
The policy review on Afghanistan offers some hope that the Administration is trying to think big picture and not be forced into short-term decisions with tragic long-term consequences. I certainly hope we get more vision along with some sound, rational decisions on the full range of challenges we face.
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